UFC 71: Odds & Picks

This Saturday night at 10:00pm est Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell will square off against an old adversary in Quinton "Rampage" Jackson in which Liddell will be defending his belt in a World Light Heavyweight Championship bout.
This isn't the first time the two have fought, the first bout took place back in 2003 at a Pride Fighting event in Japan. Jackson defeated Liddell by TKO in the second round after a storm of punches finally wore down Liddell. Since then, both fighters have been undefeated. Making his debut to the UFC in UFC 67 Jackson pummeled Marvin Eastman by way of a KO in the second round and had earned the right to fight for the Light Heavyweight belt facing a familiar foe in Chuck Liddell.
The Breakdown:
Both fighters have dominated the Light Heavyweight division all over the world and this rematch should be nothing short of an all out war. Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell has a standup striker style that allows him to use his fists as his main weapons and likes to stand his oppponents up with his fists and then slip in a high kick to the head. He also makes it a point to stay very loose and on his feet, which would indicate that he is not comfortable on the ground and wrestling his opponents is the last thing he wants to do. Liddell is 9 years the senior to Jackson and at 37 years of age, you have to think that Liddell will not want to go the distance and he will try to setup the KO early in the fight. This could be a very dangerous strategy against a younger opponent who has already beaten you. However, I don't see an alternative for Chuck, Jackson is almost 10 years his junior and has proven over and over again that it is very difficult to square him up for a knockout hit. In order to win I think Chuck will have to bait him in and then look for the powerful counter to try and catch him off guard, much the same way he did against Tito Ortiz in UFC 66. I just don't believe that Chuck can get into a punching contest or a wrestling match with a younger and what looks to be, a stronger opponent in Quinton Jackson. Quinton Jackson also has a standup stiker style, but is also not afraid to pick up opponents and slam them into the floor. Jacksons biggest advantage is that he has already beaten Liddell once and will probably follow the same strategy again this time around, "if it aint broke, don't fix it!!!" He can go out and win quick if he just stands up and starts off the fight by stalking Liddell and taking control of the Octagon. There is no size difference between the 2 and it will basically come down to who can establish a rythem first and start timing their opponents for the eventual counter punch/kick for a knockout. Thats right, you heard it hear, there WILL be a knockout in this fight, there is no lovelost between these 2 and there will definanlty be some fireworks, if not for strategy then purely for the fact that these 2 REALLY don't like each other. The line on the fight is available at GamblersPalace.com, currently it is Liddell -190 (risk $190 to win $100)and Jackson +150 (risk $100 to win $150). I would have to say that earlier in the month the value on Jackson was excellent at +200 now that the touts have come in and opinions have come out the line has moved way down into more realistic numbers, Chuck was a fan favorite which is why he opened so high, but the fact is, is that Jackson is a talented and tough fighter who has already gone up against some of the top fighters in the business. This is a tough fight to pick with no overwhelming odds to sway opinion, Jackson is no slouch and I think that at +150 there is enough value to at least throw $50 on him, but I will wait until the weigh in on friday to make a decision. Another notable fight will be Welterweights Josh "The Peoples Warrior" Burkman vs Karo "The Heat" Parisyan. Karo looks to be the more experienced fighter with a record of 24-3, however Josh Burkman has risen quite rapidly through the welterweight division in the UFC and has proven hes a force to be delt with. The current lines are Parisyan -300 (risk $300 to win $100) and Burk +220 (risk $100 to win $220). Without too much knowledge about these 2 fighters I will have to considr the value placed on Burk and whether or not I think an upset is in the works, I mean hey its the UFC, stranger things have happened. I will also have to wait to see the weighins before I make a play, but I'm leaning towards the underdog, strictly for the value. I'll have an updated picks blog out later this week after handicapping the rest of the fights on the card.